The surge in price for gas has sparked a revolution in the central-Asian former soviet republic. A short-lived revolution that has been quashed in just nine days by the authoritarian leader Tokayev with support from CSTO (A Russian-led military alliance). However, this is neither the first nor the last outburst from the population side. There is strong opposition to the current leadership that is taking advantage of every situation to promote their democratic agenda (end the rule of Tokayev and Nazarbayev; direct elections for local leaders). Unfortunately, the mortality rate among the opposition leaders is very high.
An oil-producing country (that also holds 40% of all uranium in the world), Kazakhstan is rich. Despite that, 162 Kazakhs hold 55% of all the wealth, keeping the rest of the population on a minimum wage under 90 euros per month. Unfortunately for the unhappy citizens, Kazakhstan also has a strategic value for both Russia and China (it connects Europe and Asia by road, rail and the port on the Caspian Sea). It is in the interest of both Russia and China, to maintain Kazakhstan as a dictatorship.
Kazakhstan is part of the Chinese-led SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and the Russian-led CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and Euroasian Economic Union. This means that both China and Russia can intervene with “peacekeeping” troops to maintain the regime. This already happened on the 7th of January, when CSTO troops intervened against the protesters. After Tokayev gave the order to “shoot to kill” and called the protests as “foreign engineered”, 168 people got killed and 9000 arrested. According to Tokayev, the revolution is over. According to the people of Kazakhstan, we will see another episode.
First, it was Belarus, now Kazakhstan. Will Russia be next?
