Post-Election Insights: The US Political Scene in the lense of Danish & European Foreign Relations
Nearly a month since the decision of the American people for another Trump presidency, Denmark— a small but globally influential country—stands to witness significant shifts in both trade dynamics and societal trends. From recalibrating trade agreements to fueling debates on democratic values, Trump’s re-election could reshape not only Denmark’s but Europe’s path on multiple fronts.
As the inauguration day of January 20th 2025 approaches, only one thing is certain. The impact of this election will extend beyond US borders. As was predicted back in the election of 2016, a decline in Danish exports, and thus a potential cost of 10,000+ jobs is on the horizon, according to Nordea Bank’s research. Longer out, more protectionist measures could potentially adversely affect Denmark’s substantial sea transport and trade agreements, which will prevent a sustainable lift to Danish prosperity. But, should all forecasts be seen differently this time around?
The economic, societal, and environmental implications of Trump’s second term
Let’s take a deeper dive into how companies and citizens can better prepare themselves as the US’s political dynamics evolve over the next 2 months:
A. Business Impact
After this year’s election, companies and multinational corporations outside of the US, in particularly Europe, could be prompted to consider whether restructuring operations to better align with new or continued, trade policies fits with their overall business model. This restructuring could include re-evaluating distribution channels and sourcing locations, as well as restructuring to allow US importers to change practices and re-consider methods for valuing customs and product-related costs.
Neighboring and ally countries, as well as key trade partners are preparing for the possibility of renegotiated trade agreements and shifts in US tariff policies that could significantly affect their own economies. The global community recognizes that the direction the US chooses will have wide-ranging implications for the international economy, trade negotiations and the stability of the global market.
Many Danish political parties, multi-national companies, and big organizations are exploring potential changes in trade relations, tariffs, and market stability by considering:
- How Trump’s “America First” policies can influence Danish exports, especially in industries like pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, or agriculture.
- Currency fluctuations and their effects on Danish businesses.
Statement #1: Denmark’s wind turbine industry, a leader in green energy, may face intensified competition if Trump renews support for fossil fuels domestically,” notes Kristian Jensen, CEO of Green Power Denmark
Fact #1: The green Danish energy companies Vestas and Ørsted are facing significant share drops after Trump won back the White House. Trump has previously expressed opposition to offshore wind turbines, with Vestas in particular having lost almost half of its share value in 2024.
Effects on Danish exports
Danish export income of goods and services to the U.S. reached 290 billion DKK in the first nine months of this year, marking a 44 billion DKK increase compared to the same period last year, which amounts to about 15% of Denmark’s total revenue, according to Danmarks Statistik.
The surge is largely due to higher output from Danish-owned factories in the U.S. and the recent expansion of physical operations by major Danish firms. However, Donald Trump’s election as President introduces uncertainty, as his proposed tariffs on European and Chinese goods could ignite a trade war. Such a scenario might weaken Denmark’s economy by as much as 85 billion DKK, warns Allan Sørensen, chief economist at Dansk Industri.
Effects on Danish supply chains
Supply chain resilience is crucial for Denmark. Local businesses learned this the hard way during COVID-19.
Not long after the pandemic, it was not another global crisis that tested the supply chains. It was when the massive container ship “Ever Given” blocked the Suez Canal for six days, disrupting one of the world’s key trade routes, and resulting in shortages at factories, suppliers and retailers worldwide.
Statement #2: “The U.S. presidential election could influence Danish supply chains. While I am not a political expert, Donald Trump’s talk of tariffs – especially against China – heightens the risk of trade wars, which creates uncertainty in various parts of the supply chains.” – Professor Kim Sundtoft Hald, a supply chain management researcher and lecturer at CBS.
Hald emphasizes that U.S. foreign policy, especially under Trump, could become less predictable, posing a number of global risks that Danish companies must address to maintain supply chain resilience in an increasingly volatile environment, such as the wars in Ukraine and Middle East and US-China relations.
B. Societal and Cultural Impact
Could Trump’s rhetoric and policies influence immigration debates and ideologies in Denmark?
While the direct effects on Danish society depend on specific policies, Trump’s victory will likely require Denmark to reassess its security, trade, and environmental strategies, all while navigating a more polarized and unpredictable global landscape.
- Polarization and Populism: Trump’s leadership style and rhetoric might further embolden right-wing populist movements globally, including in Denmark. The Danish People’s Party (DF) or similar groups could draw inspiration, influencing domestic politics.
- Public Opinion on the U.S.: Danish views of the U.S. might become more critical, as seen during Trump’s first term. This may lead to a cooling of cultural and academic exchanges.
Statement #3: “Whether Denmark views Trump’s re-election as a challenge or an opportunity will depend on its readiness to adapt to an ever-changing global landscape.” – Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s Climate Minister
- Employment and Integration Challenges: Employment gaps persist, with migrants, particularly non-Westerners, lagging behind ethnic Danes by an 18% employment gap. However, recent arrivals show improvements in language acquisition and economic independence. For instance, 70% of non-Western youth met educational requirements in 2022, slightly below the national average of 78%, according to The Copenhagen Post.
C. Geopolitical Relations and Climate Policies
- Strained NATO Dynamics: Denmark, as a NATO member, might face renewed uncertainty about U.S. commitments to the alliance, similar to during Trump’s first term. This could lead to increased pressure on Denmark to boost its defense spending or take more responsibility for regional security, particularly in the Arctic.
- Greenland and Arctic Policy: Trump’s interest in purchasing Greenland highlighted the strategic importance of the Arctic. A second term might revive U.S. assertiveness in the region, which could either lead to closer collaboration or friction with Denmark over sovereignty and resources.
How might his stance on climate change affect Denmark’s leadership in global sustainability efforts?
- Climate change: Denmark has been a global leader in addressing this issue, aligning with the EU’s ambitious targets. Trump’s potential rollback of climate commitments or withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Accord could hinder global progress and clash with Danish priorities.
- Lastly, Danish policymakers and environmental activists may feel the need to push harder on global initiatives and timeframes to compensate for reduced U.S. participation.
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