In the aftermath of the Spanish National Elections, it is difficult to predict who will be prime minister. The conservative party (PP) had a really good election (33% – 12,2% more than last time) coming in first place. The social-democratic party (PSOE) managed to maintain its support despite governing Spain during the difficult pandemic times (31,7% – 3,7% more than last time). As you can see, the two main parties obtained relatively similar results, which makes it very difficult for either of them to count to 176 (which is the minimum number of seats to have a majority).
- The good news is that the nationalist party VOX had a bad election (losing 19 seats compared to last time) and therefore cannot play a major role in deciding the future government.
- Most likely, the social democrat Pedro Sanchez will continue to be prime minister. However, he depends on all the regional parties from Basque Country, Catalonia, Galicia and Canary Islands to support him. This means further concessions from Spain towards the autonomy / independence of those regions.
