An invasion of Ukraine from Russia is expected to happen in January 2022. 175.000 Russian troops are currently preparing on the border. To prepare for the invasion, Ukraine gathered 125.000 troops on the border.
- NATO position: They will not deploy troops to help Ukraine, however, they have prepared harsh sanctions against Russia. Also, the United Kingdom is helping Ukraine to build two naval bases (Ochakiv on the Black Sea, and at Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov) and the USA has donated anti-tank Javelin missiles and two Coast Guard patrol boats.
- Potential sanctions against Russia: Disconnect Russia’s banking system from the international Swift payment system; Prevent the opening of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany and measures targeting Russia’s RDIF sovereign wealth fund or restrictions on banks converting roubles into foreign currency. The invasion will clearly be very expensive for Russia.
- Why the invasion? Putin is losing support at home because of the pandemic. To ramp up the support levels (at the annexation of Crimea they reached 98%), Putin has started to talk about the “one nation” project, where “Russians and Ukrainians are the same nation”. In that direction, Russia gave passports to 500,000 people from rebel-held areas in Ukraine and claimed that if those people ask for help, they must respond.
